How do electronic reading devices affect the demand for paper?
"In 15 years, the baby boomers will no longer read as much as they do today. The younger generations, on the other hand, are not as attached to paper newspapers as their parents," says the director. Sampo Timonen RISI notes changes in paper demand.
Electronic reading devices and online magazines will erode the demand for paper in the future, but how quickly remains a mystery.
“According to estimates, sales of electronic reading devices will grow in three years by the same amount as internet use increased in ten years,” Timonen describes the accelerating pace. RISI produces information services for the forest industry globally, such as forecasts.
Demand for newsprint in the United States has fallen by half in the last decade. According to Timonen, the same could happen as e-readers take over people's morning coffee tables. "I'm betting that in a couple of years we'll be looking for business models and within five years we'll see significant growth in electronic communications."
Magazine versions suitable for electronic reading devices are presumably considerably cheaper than paper versions. “It would serve the consumer if they could only get the part of the magazine they want and have time to read in paper form. After all, an outdated magazine has no value, because the web wins with its freshness. And if you want to do business, you have to be involved in electronic media, because the advertising market is growing there, unlike in print.”
According to Timonen, this has the makings of a similar change to what has already happened in music distribution. “On the other hand: a paperless office was once promised, but it hasn’t materialized.”
Locality keeps newspapers alive
In Western Europe, paper demand has declined since 2007, but more moderately than in North America. The difference is explained by the fact that the print advertising market behind the press has traditionally been strong, and thus the overall demand for paper is significantly higher than on the old continent.
“We have many countries and many languages in Europe, and that is partly why the pace of change is slower than in the USA. People want to get news in the local language,” Timonen says. However, the factors of change are also strong here, as people spend more and more of their time in media other than paper. Electronic media is also believed to be making its mark in Japan and Korea.
A technological leap is expected
In Eastern Europe, paper consumption per capita is at the world average. Except for the recession years, demand growth there has been even higher in percentage terms than in China, and demand is likely to exceed the pre-recession period. Timonen predicts that new paper machine capacity will come to Eastern Europe because, in addition to the growing domestic market, there is wood raw material and cost advantages.
In other markets – Latin America, Africa, Oceania – paper consumption is still low. Economic growth and increasing literacy are increasing demand there. “In growing markets, such as Russia and Brazil, consumers do not have the same relationship with printed media as in Western countries, but they switch directly to the latest technology as soon as they have the means,” Timonen envisions.
